The USDA’s March 1, 2025, Hogs and Pigs report reveals a continuation of the steady, incremental growth in the U.S. hog herd, underpinned by stronger productivity metrics but tempered by restraint in breeding herd expansion. These estimates provide critical signals for forward-looking hog and pork market participants navigating 2025’s evolving supply landscape.

Total Hog Inventory: Marginal Expansion with Market Hogs Leading Growth

The total inventory of all hogs and pigs in the United States as of March 1, 2025, stood at 75.2 million head, a 0.7% increase from 2024 and up 1.4% versus 2023. This growth reflects a conservative approach to herd expansion amid volatile feed costs and price pressure in the downstream pork market.

Breaking this down, the market hog segment drove the increase, rising 0.7% year-over-year to 69.19 million head, while the breeding herd remained virtually flat at 6.01 million head, down slightly from 6.016 million in 2024 and 6.146 million in 2023. This stagnation in the breeding herd indicates producer caution, likely influenced by margin compression and uncertainty around domestic demand recovery and export competitiveness.

Weight Group Analysis: Heavier Hogs in Decline, Lighter Weights on the Rise

A closer look at market hogs by weight class reveals diverging dynamics:

  • 180 pounds and over: 12.35 million head, down 0.7% from 2024 and down 3.1% from 2023. This decline signals a tightening of near-term slaughter availability, potentially supportive to lean hog futures in the short run.
  • 120–179 pounds: 15.955 million head, up 1.3% from 2024, consistent year-over-year.
  • 50–119 pounds: 19.285 million head, up 0.9%.
  • Under 50 pounds: 21.6 million head, a strong 1.1% gain from 2024 and a notable 5.7% increase from 2023.

The larger growth in lighter weight categories suggests that supply pressure is set to build in Q2 and Q3, with increased marketing expected through late spring and summer. This aligns with the reported increase in pig crop and pigs per litter.

Productivity Gains Drive Supply Despite Farrowing Declines

The December–February pig crop came in at 33.99 million head, a 0.7% increase over last year and up 4.5% versus 2023, despite the number of sows farrowed declining to 2.92 million head, down 0.3% year-over-year.

This paradox is explained by continued productivity gains: pigs per litter reached 11.64, a new record and a 1.0% improvement from 2024, extending the trend of annual productivity increases. Compared to 2023, pigs per litter rose 5.6%, showcasing the industry’s commitment to genetic improvement and herd health.

However, looking forward, farrowing intentions suggest caution:

  • March–May 2025: Farrowings are forecast at 2.925 million head, marginally above 2024 but below 2023 levels.
  • June–August 2025: Expected at 2.97 million, down 1.8% from 2024.
  • September–November 2025: At 2.94 million, slightly lower year-over-year.

This anticipated decline in farrowings reinforces the narrative of supply-side discipline, even as productivity improves.

Market Implications

From a market structure standpoint, this report suggests a modest near-term tightening, particularly in Q2, due to reduced availability of heavyweight hogs. However, as the sizable under-50 lb and 50–119 lb groups grow, supply pressure is expected to build by midyear, likely capping deferred futures unless export demand surprises to the upside.

The flat breeding herd and declining farrowing intentions limit long-term expansion prospects, placing greater emphasis on continued productivity gains to meet any future demand surges. For packers, this may help rebalance capacity utilization during shoulder seasons, but price discovery in the lean hog complex will remain highly sensitive to carcass weights, weekly slaughter totals, and export flows.

Strategic Takeaway for Market Participants

For traders, risk managers, and producers, the March 2025 report offers the following key insights:

  • Q2 lean hog futures may find support from the shortfall in heavyweight inventory.
  • Summer and fall contracts will need to price in heavier marketing from a growing pig crop.
  • Producers should monitor cost-side risk as herd expansion remains minimal and margins remain tight.
  • Export-sensitive participants should watch for Chinese and Mexican demand signals, particularly if the U.S. dollar weakens.

the U.S. hog sector continues to balance between productivity-driven supply growth and disciplined breeding decisions. This posture reflects both operational efficiency and financial prudence—a necessary balancing act in today’s high-volatility protein complex.