Introduction
The U.S. corn crop entered June with surface-level resilience, but mounting signs of regional divergence suggest the early-season outlook may not hold. While national condition indices remain steady, sharp week-over-week losses in Illinois and Indiana expose weakness in the Eastern Corn Belt. With key growth phases ahead and June WASDE around the corner, the balance between strength in the Western Corn Belt and slippage in the East will drive both yield expectations and market sentiment.
National Condition Index Holds, but Illinois Weakens Sharply
The national Crop Condition Index (CCI) across the top 18 producing states rose by one point to 375 in the week ending June 2. That figure aligns precisely with the five-year average and indicates normal development at the national scale. However, key states in the East are now trending lower.
Illinois dropped seven points to 366, its sharpest weekly decline of the season. Indiana eased by two points to 373. By contrast, Minnesota improved by nine points to 376, and Iowa rose to 405, one of the strongest early readings recorded in recent years.
National and Key State Crop Condition Index (June 2, 2025)
| Region | May 26 | June 2 | Weekly Change |
| U.S. Avg | 374 | 375 | +1 |
| Iowa | 402 | 405 | +3 |
| Illinois | 373 | 366 | -7 |
| Indiana | 375 | 373 | -2 |
| Minnesota | 367 | 376 | +9 |
| Nebraska | 378 | 377 | -1 |
These condition scores reflect field-level performance weighted by planted acres. Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska continue to anchor national strength, while Illinois now signals early-season stress that could reduce potential yield if weather conditions do not improve.
Yield and Production Forecast: Stable at the Topline, Mixed Underneath
Yield models suggest 181.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from the prior week. This estimate trails USDA’s current trend assumption of 184.1 bu/acre by 3.1 bushels, reflecting conservative assumptions around Eastern crop health and August weather.
Despite the divergence at the state level, the U.S. total corn production estimate was nearly flat at 16.862 billion bushels, down 5 million from last week. Regional updates drove the change:
- Illinois production fell by 21 million bushels to 2.256 billion.
- Minnesota gained 27 million, now forecast at 1.606 billion.
- Iowa added 12 million bushels on a stable and elevated condition score.
Corn Production Estimate Revisions (Million Bushels)
| State | May 26 | June 2 | Change |
| Illinois | 2,277 | 2,256 | -21 |
| Minnesota | 1,579 | 1,606 | +27 |
| Iowa | 2,717 | 2,729 | +12 |
| Indiana | 1,033 | 1,031 | -2 |
| Nebraska | 2,018 | 2,015 | -3 |
| U.S. Total | 16,867 | 16,862 | -5 |
Carryout Steady at 2.842 Billion Bushels
NFCM continues to project 2025/26 ending stocks at 2.842 billion bushels. This level assumes trendline demand and unchanged acreage from the May WASDE. The margin between NFCM and USDA yield estimates reflects growing uncertainty tied to Eastern condition trends.
Key Balance Sheet Metrics
| Metric | Value |
| NFCM Yield Forecast | 181.0 bu/acre |
| USDA Trend Yield | 184.1 bu/acre |
| NFCM Production Forecast | 16.862 BBu |
| Implied Ending Stocks | 2.842 BBu |
Outlook: June WASDE and Weather Will Set the Tone
Early June condition scores offer a mixed but actionable view of the 2025 corn crop. Strength in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska provides a buffer, but the rapid decline in Illinois threatens to lower national yield expectations. If Eastern Corn Belt ratings deteriorate further in the next two weeks, both WASDE revisions and market pricing will begin to reflect that shift.
The crop still holds trendline potential only if Western strength persists and Eastern deterioration does not accelerate.
Disclaimer: This communication is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Futures and options trading involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors
