As we move through the first quarter of 2025, the beef and pork markets have continued to exhibit dynamic shifts influenced by supply and demand dynamics, seasonal factors, and macroeconomic conditions.

Beef Market Overview

Cutout Values and Choice-Select Spread

The beef market has witnessed notable fluctuations in cutout values. As of early January 2025, Choice Cutout values hover around $325.79 per cwt, while Select Cutout values stand at $305.43 per cwt. This results in a Choice-Select spread of $20.36, a decline compared to recent weeks. The narrowing spread signals a possible alignment of consumer demand across quality grades.

Cattle Slaughter Trends

Estimated daily cattle slaughter remains strong at 126,000 head as of January 7, reflecting a weekly increase of 24,000 head. These levels are consistent with seasonal patterns but highlight robust throughput to meet domestic and export demand.

Key Cut Trends

  • Ribs: Heavily featured during the holiday season, rib prices have shown resilience post-holiday at $292.75 per cwt.
  • Loins: Often a staple cut, loins have maintained steady pricing at $390.60 per cwt.
  • 90% Fresh Trim: Fresh beef trim prices remain at $283.13 per cwt, with slight upward momentum, reflecting strong grinding beef demand.

Pork Market Developments

Pork Cutout Values

The Pork Cutout value, a key benchmark for the market, currently sits at $217.74 per cwt. Hams, an integral component, have sustained their strength with 20-23 lb hams priced at $127.87 per cwt. However, there’s notable pressure on belly prices, with derind 9-13 lb bellies at $79.80 per cwt, reflecting softer demand.

Slaughter and Production

Daily hog slaughter stands robust at 487,000 head. While volumes have seen slight week-over-week declines, the overall market throughput continues to align with processor capacities and export commitments.

Trimming and Load Data

  • 42% Pork Trim: Prices have stabilized at $79.96 per cwt.
  • 72% Pork Trim: A marginal increase has been observed, with prices now at $86.91 per cwt. These trends underscore a balanced demand for further-processed pork products.

Economic and Market Drivers

Feed Costs and Input Prices

The CME Feeder Cattle Index has risen to $200 per cwt, reflecting higher feed costs and increased demand for feeder cattle. Corn and soybean prices remain a focal point for producers, impacting profitability and supply planning.

Export Dynamics

U.S. beef and pork exports have been pivotal in supporting prices, with Asia and Latin America being key markets. However, shifting exchange rates and global economic uncertainties could threaten export demand in the coming months.

Forward Outlook

As the market progresses into 2025, several factors will shape price trajectories and supply chains:

  1. Seasonal Adjustments: Expect further normalization of beef and pork cut values as seasonal demand wanes.
  2. Export Performance: Trade negotiations and economic conditions in key importing countries will significantly impact U.S. meat exports.
  3. Feed Costs: Any volatility in corn and soybean markets will ripple through production costs, influencing slaughter volumes and pricing.