On March 10, 2025, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) Disaggregated Report highlighted key shifts in speculative and commercial positioning across grains and soft commodities. Managed money adjusted long and short positions in wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, coffee, and sugar, reflecting market expectations for supply and demand imbalances.
Macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical tensions, inflation, and adverse weather, continue to shape commodity markets. Trade restrictions, supply shocks, and changing global demand are further influencing price movements.
This report examines grains (wheat, corn, and soybeans) and soft commodities (sugar, coffee, and cocoa), integrating COT data, supply and demand fundamentals, and price action analysis.
Wheat Market: Tight Supply Meets Demand Resilience
The March COT report shows commercial net short positions easing as end-users lock in supply amid tightening global stocks. The USDA projects domestic wheat use at 970 million bushels, reflecting increased food consumption. Global wheat production remains uncertain due to adverse weather in Russia and Australia.
Export competition is growing, particularly from the Black Sea region, where Russia and Ukraine remain dominant suppliers. This is contributing to price volatility as traders react to shifting trade flows.
| Wheat Price Levels | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $8.00 |
| Support | $6.00 |
Wheat futures tested $8.00 per bushel, with bullish momentum supported by lower-than-expected stocks and increased commercial buying. A move below $6.00 could accelerate selling pressure if the global harvest outlook improves.
Corn Market: Surplus Concerns Weigh on Prices
The USDA projects global corn production to rise by 1% to 796 million tonnes, but concerns about oversupply persist. Argentina and Brazil’s record crops are adding pressure to prices, while China’s import demand remains volatile due to changing trade policies.
U.S. ethanol demand remains stable, but export markets face competition from South America, where logistics and lower costs make Brazilian and Argentine corn attractive to global buyers.
| Corn Price Levels | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $7.80 |
| Support | $5.50 |
Corn prices are struggling to find upward momentum. A break above $7.80 would indicate renewed buying interest, while a drop below $5.50 could lead to further declines, particularly if South American exports gain traction.
Soybean Market: Uncertain Demand Offsets Tight Supply
Soybean prices are reacting to supply constraints in Brazil and Argentina, but demand concerns from China are capping gains. The U.S. exported $12.76 billion worth of soybeans in 2024, with China remaining the largest buyer. However, China’s shifting trade policies and growing domestic production are creating uncertainty in the market.
Speculative positioning shows managed money reducing long positions, signaling a cautious stance on further price appreciation.
| Soybean Price Levels | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $15.00 |
| Support | $12.50 |
Soybean futures recently tested $15.00 per bushel. A confirmed breakout would trigger additional upside momentum, while failure to hold above $12.50 could lead to increased selling pressure.
Sugar Market: Weather Disruptions Drive Prices Higher
The FAO reported a 6.6% increase in sugar prices in February, driven by tightening supply conditions in Brazil and India. Drought conditions in Brazil have reduced sugarcane yields, while India has maintained export restrictions to ensure domestic food security.
Speculative interest has increased, with managed money extending long positions as traders anticipate further price appreciation.
| Sugar Price Levels | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $21.00 |
| Support | $18.50 |
Sugar prices remain in an uptrend, with resistance at $21.00. A failure to hold above $18.50 could trigger a short-term correction, but fundamental supply constraints continue to support prices.
Coffee Market: Record High Prices Disrupt Trade
Arabica coffee futures have climbed nearly 70% since November 2024, as supply disruptions in Brazil push prices higher. Production shortfalls, logistical bottlenecks, and rising input costs have limited bean availability. Roasters are cutting purchases, leading to slower trade flows.
| Coffee Price Levels | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $2.80/lb |
| Support | $2.35/lb |
Coffee futures are hovering near $2.80 per pound. If supply remains constrained, prices could push higher, though a move below $2.35 could signal a retracement.
Cocoa Market: Supply Crisis Triggers Price Explosion
Cocoa prices hit record highs due to a supply crisis in West Africa. The Harmattan winds have significantly reduced yields in Ivory Coast and Ghana, two of the world’s largest cocoa producers. Supply shortages have intensified speculative buying, while major chocolate manufacturers are raising prices in response.
| Cocoa Price Levels | Value |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $5,500/ton |
| Support | $4,700/ton |
Cocoa remains in one of its strongest bull runs in years, with prices surpassing $5,500 per ton. A pullback to $4,700 could provide a buying opportunity if fundamentals remain tight.
Market Outlook
Wheat prices are supported by supply constraints but need demand follow-through to sustain gains. Corn faces mixed fundamentals, with large South American supplies weighing on prices. Soybean markets remain in flux as China’s demand uncertainty continues.
Sugar and cocoa are in strong uptrends, with weather and supply disruptions playing a key role. Coffee remains volatile, with extreme price swings limiting trade activity.
Traders should monitor geopolitical events, weather patterns, and speculative positioning for insights into future price action. Hedging strategies and technical level monitoring will be crucial as the year progresses.
