The December 2024 Hog Market report provides valuable insights into the industry’s state, including revisions to past estimates, current trends in production, utilization rates, and regional dynamics. The data reflects steady growth in key metrics, with some areas showing adjustments based on updated surveys. Below is a detailed analysis of the key findings.

Revised Estimates: Refinements Across the Board

The revisions to initial estimates highlight the USDA’s continuous effort to refine its data:

  • All Hogs and Pigs (Sep 2023): Revised from 74.3M to 75.9M head, an upward adjustment of 1.6M.
  • Pig Crop (Sep 2023): Increased from 34.2M to 35.1M, up by 905K head.
  • June 2024 and Sep 2024 Revisions: Minor downward adjustments in pig crop figures (-360K and -385K) indicate recalibration of previous forecasts based on updated surveys.

Breeding Herd Utilization: Stability Amid Changes

Breeding herd inventory and utilization trends remained stable over the years. For December 2024:

  • The breeding herd estimate is 6.004M head, slightly up from 2023.
  • Sow utilization rates held steady at 49%, aligning with historical norms.
  • Slaughter and additions to the breeding herd show consistent activity with minimal variance.

Productivity Metrics: Pigs Per Litter on the Rise

Productivity continues to improve:

  • The pig crop rose to 35.2M in 2024, a 2% increase over 2023.
  • Pigs per litter increased by 2.2%, reaching a record-high average of 11.92, marking significant efficiency gains in production.

Market Hogs by Weight Class: Mixed Trends

Market hog inventory showed slight growth, with a total of 69.8M head in 2024 (+0.5% YoY). Breaking it down by weight class:

  • Hogs under 50 lbs grew by 1.2%.
  • Those between 50-119 lbs increased by 1.4%.
  • Heavier hogs (120-179 lbs and 180 lbs or more) saw marginal declines of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively.

Farrowing Intentions: Modest Adjustments

Farrowing intentions for December-February and March-May indicate a mixed outlook:

  • Dec-Feb 2024 intentions are virtually unchanged at 2.93M head.
  • March-May 2024 intentions show a slight 1.4% increase, reflecting cautious optimism for production growth in the spring.

Price Trends: Hogs vs. Corn

The hog-to-corn price ratio remains favorable despite recent fluctuations in commodity prices:

  • Hog prices in October 2024 averaged $63.9/cwt, while corn prices stood at $3.99/bu.
  • The hog-to-corn ratio was 16.02, reflecting sustained profitability for producers.

Regional Analysis: Top Producers

Iowa continues to dominate hog production, with 24.6 million head, followed by Minnesota (9.5 million), North Carolina (8.2 million), Illinois (5.6 million), and Indiana (4.45 million). These top five states account for a significant portion of the national inventory.

Trade Expectations and Final Estimates

The USDA’s final estimates for 2024 align closely with trade expectations:

  • All Hogs and Pigs estimates exceeded the trading range slightly, landing at 100.5% of the previous year.
  • Breeding and market hogs were within expected ranges, underscoring stable market dynamics.

Conclusion

The December 2024 hog market report shows steady growth, increased efficiency, and favorable economic conditions for producers. Rising productivity metrics and stable inventory levels suggest a resilient industry poised to meet future demand. However, carefully monitoring market hog weights and farrowing intentions will be essential as producers navigate evolving market conditions.