The latest forecast from Commodity Weather Group (CWG) highlights shifting weather risks across key South American agricultural regions. While some areas have benefited from recent rainfall, others face continued dryness or excessive moisture, which could impact soybean and corn yields.
In the short term, far northern Argentina is expected to remain dry, while northeastern Argentina will receive increased rainfall. Southern Argentina and eastern Mato Grosso are also likely to experience drier conditions. By the 6-10 day period, rainfall is projected to increase in southern Argentina, while northeast Argentina and southern Brazil trend drier. Temperature-wise, southern Brazil will warm slightly, whereas Argentina and central-to-southern Brazil will see cooler conditions. Moving into the 11-15 day period, wetter conditions are anticipated across Brazil and central-to-southeastern Argentina, while northern Argentina remains drier.
Satellite-derived NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) anomalies suggest some recovery in Argentina’s crop conditions. February rainfall has been above the 30-year average, particularly in Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and western Buenos Aires, leading to modest improvements. However, vegetative health indicators remain below long-term averages. Comparing this season to past years, 2004 and 2008 had similar NDVI trends. While 2008 saw an 8% yield increase, 2004 ended 7% below trend. The worst-case years—2009, 2012, and 2023—experienced soybean losses ranging from 15% to nearly 40%. Given the similarity to 2004, Argentina’s soybean yield in 2025 may decline by around 7%, translating to approximately 46.5 million metric tons (MMT), which is below the USDA’s 49 MMT projection.
February has been one of the wettest on record, comparable only to 2012, though 2025’s starting conditions were better. Despite increased precipitation, this season is tracking as one of the warmest summers since 1980. The pattern is characterized by persistent warmth rather than extreme daytime highs or nighttime lows. While recent rainfall has alleviated some stress, ongoing heat could continue to weigh on yields.
The coming weeks will be crucial as traders and market analysts assess how these weather patterns evolve. If conditions follow the 2004 trajectory, soybean production could settle below current estimates, with potential downside risks if warm and dry conditions persist.
