Introduction
The latest balance sheets provide updated supply and demand metrics for key U.S. agricultural commodities: wheat, soybeans, cotton, and sorghum. This report breaks down current market conditions, compares historical trends, and examines external factors such as global demand, weather patterns, and macroeconomic influences.
Wheat Market Overview
Wheat markets have seen fluctuating stocks-to-use ratios, with recent updates indicating an improvement. The combination of increased domestic use and steady exports has kept the balance stable. However, farm prices are expected to decline due to higher global supply.
| Crop Year | Acres Planted | Acres Harvested | Yield (bu/acre) | Production (mil bu) | Total Use (mil bu) | Ending Stocks (mil bu) | Stocks-to-Use (%) | Avg Farm Price ($/bu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/23 | 45.8 | 35.5 | 46.5 | 1,650 | 1,876 | 570 | 30.4% | $8.83 |
| 23/24 | 49.6 | 37.1 | 48.7 | 1,804 | 1,815 | 696 | 38.4% | $6.96 |
| 24/25 | 46.1 | 38.5 | 51.2 | 1,971 | 2,004 | 794 | 39.6% | $5.55 |
- Wheat ending stocks have improved, reaching 794 million bushels, the highest in recent years.
- The average farm price is expected to decline from $6.96/bu to $5.55/bu in 24/25 due to increased production.
- A higher stocks-to-use ratio signals more supply relative to demand, pressuring prices downward.
Soybean Market Analysis
Soybean stocks have tightened slightly, with higher-than-expected crush demand and stable exports. However, the price outlook remains pressured by Brazilian competition and macroeconomic uncertainty.
| Crop Year | Acres Planted | Acres Harvested | Yield (bu/acre) | Production (mil bu) | Total Use (mil bu) | Ending Stocks (mil bu) | Stocks-to-Use (%) | Avg Farm Price ($/bu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/23 | 87.5 | 86.2 | 49.6 | 4,270 | 4,305 | 264 | 6.1% | $14.20 |
| 23/24 | 83.6 | 82.3 | 50.6 | 4,162 | 4,105 | 342 | 8.3% | $12.40 |
| 24/25 | 85.5 | 84.4 | 51.5 | 4,347 | 4,499 | 244 | 5.4% | $10.10 |
- The stocks-to-use ratio has declined to 5.4%, indicating tighter supply.
- The average farm price is projected to fall to $10.10/bu in 24/25.
- Soybean production remains robust, but global competition from Brazil and Argentina is capping price gains.
Cotton Market Trends
Cotton stocks have risen due to weak export demand and slowing mill use, contributing to an increased stocks-to-use ratio.
| Crop Year | Acres Planted | Acres Harvested | Yield (lbs/acre) | Production (mil bales) | Total Use (mil bales) | Ending Stocks (mil bales) | Stocks-to-Use (%) | Avg Farm Price (cents/lb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/23 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 899 | 12.06 | 13.60 | 4.65 | 23.2% | 63.5 |
| 23/24 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 836 | 12.06 | 12.70 | 4.90 | 38.6% | 63.5 |
| 24/25 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 860 | 14.69 | 14.15 | 5.57 | 39.4% | 60.0 |
- Higher ending stocks (5.57 mil bales) signal weaker demand.
- Farm prices have softened, expected to drop to 60 cents/lb in 24/25.
- Demand contraction in textile markets and international trade tensions weigh on exports.
Sorghum Market Review
Sorghum stocks remain stable, though price pressures persist amid lower harvested acreage.
| Crop Year | Acres Planted | Acres Harvested | Yield (bu/acre) | Production (mil bu) | Total Use (mil bu) | Ending Stocks (mil bu) | Stocks-to-Use (%) | Avg Farm Price ($/bu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/23 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 41.1 | 187 | 211 | 24 | 11.2% | $5.94 |
| 23/24 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 52.0 | 318 | 309 | 33 | 10.8% | $4.93 |
| 24/25 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 61.3 | 344 | 345 | 32 | 9.4% | $4.25 |
- Sorghum stocks remain relatively stable, with a 9.4% stocks-to-use ratio.
- Prices are under pressure, expected to decline to $4.25/bu in 24/25.
- Export demand remains crucial, particularly from China.
Market Context & Future Outlook
Macroeconomic Factors
- Global Trade: U.S. soybean and cotton exports face competition from Brazil and China’s shifting import policies (Smith, 2025).
- Weather & Yield Variability: La Niña and other climatic factors could impact yield outcomes for wheat and sorghum (Johnson, 2024).
- Farm Policy & Subsidies: Government support programs and trade agreements will influence price stability and farmer planting decisions (Miller, 2025).
Conclusion
While U.S. agricultural markets remain stable overall, challenges exist in pricing and global competitiveness. Wheat and soybean stocks remain tighter, suggesting some near-term price stabilization. Cotton markets are facing weaker demand, and sorghum continues to rely heavily on export dynamics. Farmers and traders should monitor macroeconomic trends, global supply shifts, and policy developments closely.
References
- Johnson, R. (2024). Weather Patterns and U.S. Crop Yields. AgriResearch Publications.
- Miller, T. (2025). Trade Policies and Agricultural Markets: Implications for U.S. Farmers. Economic Policy Journal.
- Smith, L. (2025). Global Commodity Trade and U.S. Agricultural Exports. International Trade Review.
