Market Overview
As of February 13, 2025, the grain markets exhibit notable movements influenced by international production estimates and geopolitical developments. Corn and soybean futures have experienced declines, while wheat has shown an uptick. Key factors contributing to these trends include Brazil’s updated crop forecasts and impending U.S. policy announcements.
Brazil’s Crop Projections
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) has revised its agricultural output estimates as follows:
| Crop | Previous Estimate (MMT) | Revised Estimate (MMT) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 119.74 | 122.017 | +1.9 |
| Soybeans | 166.21 | 166.014 | -0.1 |
Source: Conab via Reuters
These adjustments bring Conab’s figures closer to those of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which projects Brazil’s soybean production at 169 MMT and corn at 126 MMT. The upward revision in corn production is attributed to favorable weather conditions and an expanded planting area. Conversely, the slight reduction in soybean estimates reflects minor yield adjustments.
Safrinha Corn Planting Progress
The ideal planting window for Brazil’s safrinha remains open for approximately two to three more weeks. As of last week, 22% of the corn has been planted. Timely planting within this window is crucial to optimize yields and mitigate risks associated with late-season weather variability.
U.S. Policy Developments
President Donald Trump is scheduled to make a statement early this afternoon regarding the implementation of retaliatory tariffs. The focus will be on the specific products affected and the countries targeted. Particular attention is directed toward any measures involving Mexico, given its significant trade relationship with the U.S. agricultural sector. Previous tariff announcements have led to concerns about potential economic impacts on U.S. farmers, especially in the Midwest, where trade with Mexico and Canada is pivotal.
Technical Analysis
For traders monitoring price movements, the following support and resistance levels are pertinent:
- March Corn:
- Support: $4.85
- Resistance: $4.98
- March Soybeans:
- Support: $10.22
- Resistance: $10.40
These levels are essential for market participants to consider when making trading decisions.
Conclusion
The grain markets are currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by international production dynamics and impending policy decisions. Market participants should remain vigilant, monitoring both global production reports and domestic policy announcements to make informed decisions.
