Executive Summary

Weather continues to play a pivotal role in shaping early-season crop expectations across the U.S. and global agricultural markets. The Midday Update from Commodity Weather Group (CWG) highlights ongoing seeding delays in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, lingering drought stress in HRW wheat areas of the Southern Plains, and a neutral-to-supportive summer outlook that downplays the likelihood of widespread heat or drought. As traders calibrate risk in grains and oilseeds markets, this update provides actionable clarity across the 1–30 day and seasonal horizons.

Midwestern Fieldwork Hampered by Heavy Rains

Over the past week, 2–5 inches of rain have drenched the Central and Southern Midwest, slowing field operations and extending planting delays for corn and soybeans. The SW Midwest (MO, IL, AR) remains the primary concern for continued slowdowns through early May. While the Ohio Valley will see intermittent rains, CWG notes those may not be enough to significantly worsen standing soil moisture concerns.

In the Delta, fieldwork faces short-term disruption this week, though week 2 offers a drier reprieve—particularly outside of parts of Arkansas. In the Southeast, rains may briefly delay corn/soy seeding but will support germination, except in southern Georgia and South Carolina, where a drier 6–15 day window could reduce topsoil moisture.

Southern Plains: Colorado and W. Kansas Remain Critical

Showers have supported Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat growth across portions of the Southern Plains. However, western Kansas and eastern Colorado—home to 25% of U.S. HRW wheat acreage—remain under moisture stress, with limited relief expected in the short-term outlook. This remains the key wheat production risk heading into May and will be closely watched by futures traders and basis marketers.

Corn Belt Outlook for May: Slightly Drier Bias

CWG has modestly shifted its May 2025 outlook toward drier conditions for the Central Midwest, reducing the odds of widespread fieldwork delays and supporting rapid planting progress in the latter half of the month. Three scenarios are modeled:

  • Primary Scenario (45% probability): Warmer/drier May, modeled on analogs from –ENSO/–PDO years, with fewer delays.
  • Secondary Scenario (35%): Cooler/wetter, more consistent with the CFS model, would imply additional interruptions.
  • Third Scenario (20%): Ranks among the wettest in the past 45 years, but is considered less likely.

The dry scenario is not as extreme as 2023, but CWG notes it would rank as the 8th driest May in the past 45 years, limiting excessive saturation and supporting emergence.

Summer 2025: Warm Bias, But Major Drought Unlikely

CWG’s Summer 2025 Seasonal Outlook offers a cautiously optimistic view. While the Midwest is expected to trend warmer than normal, damaging heat events are not forecasted, thanks in part to the neutral ENSO signal and broadly warm Pacific SSTs.

Key features include:

  • Patchy dryness risks in the far Western and Southeastern Corn Belt, but not widespread.
  • Delta and Southern U.S. cotton areas benefit from May rains, though Texas cotton may face hotter and drier conditions.
  • Spring wheat in Southern Canada emerges as the most vulnerable to early stress.
  • A significant heat/drought event would require a shift toward La Niña or cooling of NE Pacific waters, which CWG currently does not project.

Global Weather Hotspots to Monitor

China

  • Dryness in the North China Plain is impacting wheat heading and early corn/soy development.
  • Summer rainfall should help stabilize yields.

India

  • May showers may delay planting of cotton and rice, but improve soil moisture levels.

Europe and the Black Sea

  • Favorable moisture for wheat in May; only patchy corn planting delays.
  • Summer precipitation is expected to be near average.

Australia

  • May–July showers to support wheat and canola development, with only minor cotton delays.

South America

  • NE Brazil drying trend continues into May.
  • Argentina’s harvest outlook remains stable, with limited rain disruptions.
  • Southern Brazil will see increasing winter wheat moisture deficits.

Market Implications and Trader Takeaways

  • Corn/Soy Futures: Expect short-term support from seeding delays, particularly in the SW Midwest. The drier May outlook limits extended premium buildup unless field conditions worsen.
  • Wheat Markets: Moisture deficits in CO/KS remain the core production threat for HRW contracts. Traders should closely monitor Plains rainfall and vegetative index reports.
  • Cotton and Soybean Positioning: Moisture variability in the Southeast and Delta could introduce yield dispersion, especially if week 2 rains underperform.
  • Weather Premiums: With no immediate risk of extreme summer weather, markets may discount widespread drought fears unless model shifts occur.

Conclusion

As of late April 2025, weather risks remain regionally concentrated rather than nationally systemic. The combination of episodic planting delays, localized wheat stress, and generally cooperative summer signals provides a mixed but manageable backdrop for grain and oilseed markets. CWG’s guidance reduces the probability of a major weather premium building into summer contracts, though close monitoring of southern Plains dryness and Southeast moisture slippage will be critical in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. All weather-based market interpretations carry inherent uncertainty. Readers should pair meteorological intelligence with broader fundamentals and consult licensed advisors before making investment decisions.